We shipped Pro v3 today. Here is what changed, why each change matters, and what it means for your retirement plan.
What Was Wrong With v1 and v2
The original Pro planner had three structural problems that made it less useful than it should have been.
Social Security income was not modeled. The POST-59½ sheet projected withdrawals through life expectancy but never subtracted SS income — so the portfolio looked like it had to fund 100% of spending forever, even after SS started. That made every plan look worse than it actually was.
The Roth Ladder suggested nothing. The conversion suggestion was $0 in every bridge year because the formula was broken. The ACA cliff cross-check existed in concept but never fired.
There was no Monte Carlo. The planner showed one deterministic path at a fixed return rate. That looks clean but misses the most important risk in early retirement: what happens if the bad years come first.
Pro v3 fixes all three — and adds several things that weren't there at all.
Free v2.2 vs Pro v3 — What Each Version Includes
What Pro v3 Catches That v2 Missed — A Real Example
Here is a scenario that looks fine in a linear projection but breaks down under v3 analysis.
The plan: Age 50, retiring immediately. $300K taxable, $600K 401k, $100K Roth, $48K annual spending, MFJ, SS claiming at 67.
What the deterministic POST-59½ sheet shows: Portfolio funded to age 90. Looks okay.
What Pro v3 actually reveals:
The RISK FLAGS sheet fires immediately — withdrawal rate at 4.8%, above the 3.3% target for a 40-year retirement. That alone is a warning.
The MONTE CARLO sheet shows a 44% success rate. Nearly half of all simulated retirement sequences end in portfolio depletion before age 90. The deterministic projection said "funded" — Monte Carlo says the plan fails in 56% of realistic market scenarios. That is not a plan. That is a coin flip.
The ROTH LADDER sheet shows bracket space available in years 1-3 when income is low — but the ACA cliff cross-check flags that aggressive conversions would push MAGI above the threshold and may eliminate premium tax credits. The suggested conversion is capped at the ACA-safe amount automatically.
The SS DELAY flag shows that claiming at 67 instead of 70 leaves roughly $8,640/year permanently on the table.
After adjustments using the planner: Pushing retirement to age 53, dropping spending to $44K, and delaying SS to 70 moves Monte Carlo success from 44% to 81%. The same $1M portfolio, three years later and with adjusted inputs, crosses from fragile to acceptable.
That is the decision the planner is built to support. Not "do I have enough?" but "what does my plan actually look like under realistic conditions — and what levers change the outcome?"
What's New in Pro v3
Monte Carlo Simulator
The MONTE CARLO sheet stress-tests your plan against 200 different return sequences — some with crashes in year 1, some in year 10, some with strong early returns. Each sequence asks: does the money last to your life expectancy?
The results block shows your success rate as a large green percentage, plus median final balance, 10th percentile (bad luck), and 90th percentile (good luck). Press F9 to re-run with a new set of 200 sequences.
Why this matters more than the deterministic projection: A plan that shows "funded to age 90" at a fixed 6.5% return might show 40-50% Monte Carlo success. The gap is sequence of returns risk — selling assets in a down market early in retirement permanently impairs the portfolio. The linear projection assumes returns arrive in a smooth, predictable order. They never do.
Benchmarks: 90%+ is robust. 75-90% is acceptable with spending flexibility. Below 75% means structural changes are needed before retiring.
ACA Cliff Cross-Check in the Roth Ladder
The ROTH LADDER sheet calculates a suggested Roth conversion for each bridge year — the smaller of remaining 12% bracket space and estimated ACA cliff headroom. Column G checks each year automatically and flags any year where MAGI may exceed the 400% FPL threshold, which could reduce or eliminate ACA premium tax credits depending on household income and Marketplace rules.
The default suggestion is already ACA-safe. Overwrite any year to convert more and the warning fires if the cliff is approached.
Why this matters: A Roth conversion that saves $5,000 in future taxes can cost $15,000 in lost ACA subsidies in the same year. The cross-check catches that before you commit to a conversion strategy.
Note: the cliff threshold currently assumes a 2-person household. A household size input is on the roadmap for v3.1.
Social Security Modeled in POST-59½
The POST-59½ sheet now correctly reduces annual portfolio withdrawals by your inflated SS benefit once you reach your claiming age. The RISK FLAGS sheet shows the exact dollar impact of delaying SS from your current claiming age to 70 — calculated as 8% per year of delay.
Color-Coded RISK FLAGS
All 9 RISK FLAGS now use Excel conditional formatting that reacts to the actual formula output in real time:
- 🟢 Green — check passes
- 🟠 Orange — review needed (high withdrawal rate, bridge gap, thin cash buffer, ACA cliff)
- 🔴 Red — hard stop (penalty risk on 401k draws, portfolio depletion)
- 🟡 Gold — advisory (SS delay opportunity, IRMAA warning)
Change any INPUTS value and the flag colors update instantly.
TAX ESTIMATE
Federal tax estimate for every bridge year. Switches between MFJ and Single brackets automatically from INPUTS. Shows gross income, standard deduction, taxable income, estimated federal tax, and state tax per year. Lets you see the real after-tax cost of each withdrawal year before you retire.
What the Free Planner (v2.2) Got
The free planner also received meaningful fixes — not just cosmetic updates:
- SS income now modeled correctly in POST-59½ — the single biggest functional gap in v2.1
- 401k cascade formula fixed — no more phantom balance increases when an account depletes mid-year
- RISK FLAGS now pull from actual BRIDGE CLEAN sheet outputs instead of static math
- Raw BRIDGE YEARS sheet hidden — only the clean view is visible
- Pro teaser block added to DASHBOARD
The free planner is a solid bridge-years model. Pro v3 adds the four sheets that change retirement decisions: TAX ESTIMATE shows the real cost of each withdrawal year. ROTH LADDER optimizes conversions without blowing ACA subsidies. MONTE CARLO shows whether the plan survives bad market sequences. REBALANCE keeps the allocation on track.
How to Get v3
Existing Pro members: Log in to your Pro dashboard and download the updated file. The link now points to v3 — no extra cost.
Free users: Download the updated free planner v2.2 to get the SS modeling and formula fixes. When you are ready to stress-test your plan with Monte Carlo, optimize Roth conversions, and see the tax cost of every bridge year — upgrade to Pro.
What's Coming Next
- Monte Carlo visualization — histogram of outcomes instead of just summary stats
- ACA household size input — cliff threshold adjustable for 1-4 person households
- State tax dropdown — pre-populated rates for all 50 states
- PDF export — one-click export for advisor meetings
Start Modeling Your Plan
Free — Bridge Planner v2.2 SS income modeled, 401k cascade fixed, 5 RISK FLAGS, clean 7-sheet layout. Download free →
Pro v3 — Full Planning System Monte Carlo simulator, TAX ESTIMATE, ROTH LADDER with ACA cross-check, 9 color-coded RISK FLAGS, REBALANCE tracker. The four sheets that change retirement decisions. Upgrade to Pro →
Related: How to Use the Bridge Planner · Roth Ladder vs 72(t) · Rule 72(t) SEPP Guide · Can I Retire at 50 With $1M?